王詡™Trend Following

The Head and Shoulders bottom is referred to sometimes as an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The pattern shares many common characteristics with its comparable partner, but relies more heavily on volume patterns for confirmation.

As a major reversal pattern, the Head and Shoulders Bottom forms after a downtrend, and its completion marks a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.

The price action forming both Head and Shoulders Top and Head and Shoulders Bottom patterns remains roughly the same, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a Head and Shoulders Top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom. We will look at each part of the pattern individually, keeping volume in mind, and then put the parts together with some examples.

1. Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior downtrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior downtrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders Bottom formation.
2. Left Shoulder: While in a downtrend, the left shoulder forms a trough that marks a new reaction low in the current trend. After forming this trough, an advance ensues to complete the formation of the left shoulder (1). The high of the decline usually remains below any longer trend line, thus keeping the downtrend intact.
3. Head: From the high of the left shoulder, a decline begins that exceeds the previous low and forms the low point of the head. After making a bottom, the high of the subsequent advance forms the second point of the neckline (2). The high of the advance sometimes breaks a downtrend line, which calls into question the robustness of the downtrend.
4. Right Shoulder: The decline from the high of the head (neckline) begins to form the right shoulder. This low is always higher than the head, and it is usually in line with the low of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack, and the right shoulder will be higher, lower, wider, or narrower. When the advance from the low of the right shoulder breaks the neckline, the Head and Shoulders Bottom reversal is complete.
5. Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting reaction highs 1 and 2. Reaction High 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Reaction High 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two reaction highs, the neckline can slope up, slope down, or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bullishness: an upward slope is more bullish than downward slope.
6. Volume: While volume plays an important role in the Head and Shoulders Top, it plays a crucial role in the Head and Shoulders Bottom. Without the proper expansion of volume, the validity of any breakout becomes suspect. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing the absolute levels associated with each peak and trough.
   • Volume levels during the first half of the pattern are less important than in the second half. Volume on the decline of the left shoulder is usually pretty heavy and selling pressure quite intense. The intensity of selling can even continue during the decline that forms the low of the head. After this low, subsequent volume patterns should be watched carefully to look for expansion during the advances.
   • The advance from the low of the head should show an increase in volume and/or better indicator readings, e.g., CMF > 0 or rise in OBV. After the reaction high forms the second neckline point, the right shoulder's decline should be accompanied with light volume. It is normal to experience profit-taking after an advance. Volume analysis helps distinguish between normal profit-taking and heavy selling pressure. With light volume on the pullback, indicators like CMF and OBV should remain strong. The most important moment for volume occurs on the advance from the low of the right shoulder. For a breakout to be considered valid, there needs to be an expansion of volume on the advance and during the breakout.
7. Neckline Break: The Head and Shoulders Bottom pattern is not complete, and the downtrend is not reversed until neckline resistance is broken. For a Head and Shoulders Botom, this must occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion of volume.
8. Resistance Turned Support: Once resistance is broken, it is common for this same resistance level to turn into support. Often, the price will return to the resistance break, and offer a second chance to buy.
9. Price Target: After breaking neckline resistance, the projected advance is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the bottom of the head. This distance is then added to the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered, as well. These factors might include previous resistance levels, Fibonacci retracements or long-term moving averages.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) formed a head and shoulders bottom with a downward sloping neckline.Key points include:

1. The stock began a downtrend in early July, and declined from 60 to 26.
2. The low of the left shoulder formed with a large spike in volume on a sharp down day (red arrows).
3. The reaction rally at around 42 1/2 formed the first point of the neckline (1). Volume on the advance was respectable with many gray bars exceeding the 60-day SMA. (Note: gray bars denote advancing days, black bars declining days and the thin red horizontal is the 60-day SMA).
4. The decline from 42 1/2 to 26 (head) was quite dramatic, but volume did not get out of hand. Chaikin Money Flow was mostly positive when the lows around 26 were forming.
5. The advance off of the low saw a large expansion of volume (green oval) and gap up. The strength behind the move indicated that a significant low formed.
6. After the reaction high around 39, the second point of the neckline could be drawn (2).
7. The decline from 39 to 33 occurred on light volume until the final two days, when volume reached its highest point in a month. Even though there are two long black (down) volume bars, these are surrounded by above-average gray (up) volume bars. Also notice how trend line resistance near 35 became support around 33 on the price chart.
8. The advance off of the low of the right shoulder occurred with above average volume. Chaikin Money Flow was at its highest levels, and surpassed +20% shortly after neckline resistance was broken.
9. After breaking neckline resistance, the stock returned to this newfound support with a successful test around 35 (green arrow).

AT&T (T) formed a head and shoulders bottom with a flat neckline. The shoulders are a bit shallow, but the neckline and head are well pronounced. Key points include:

1. The stock established a 6-month downtrend with the trend line extending down from Mar-98.
2. After a head fake above the trend line in late June, the stock fell from 66 to 50 with a sharp increase in volume to form the left shoulder.
3. The rally to 61 met resistance from the trend line, and the reaction high became the first point of the neckline.
4. The decline from 61 to 48 finished with a piercing pattern to form the low of the head. Even though volume was heavy when the long black candlestick formed, the subsequent reversal occurred on even higher volume. This reversal was followed with a number of strong advances and up gaps. Also notice that Chaikin Money Flow was above +10% when the low of the head formed.
5. The advance from the low of the head broke above the trend line, extending down from Mar-98, and met resistance around 61. This reaction high formed the second point of the neckline.
6. The right shoulder was quite short and shallow. The low was recorded at 57 and Chaikin Money Flow remained above +10% the whole time. Support was found from the trend line that offered resistance a few weeks earlier.
7. The stock advanced sharply off of lows that formed the right shoulder, and volume increased three straight days (blue arrow). This is a bit early, but volume remained just above average for the neckline breakout a few days later. Also Chaikin Money Flow remained above +10% the whole time.
8. After the break of neckline resistance, the stock tested this newfound support twice while consolidating recent gains. The power arrived a few weeks later with a strong move off support and a huge increase in volume. The stock subsequently advanced from the low sixties to the low eighties.

Head and Shoulder Bottoms are one of the most common and reliable reversal formations. It is important to remember that they occur after a downtrend and usually mark a major trend reversal when complete. While it is preferable that the left and right shoulders be symmetrical, it is not an absolute requirement. Shoulders can be different widths as well as different heights. Keep in mind that technical analysis is more an art than a science. If you are looking for the perfect pattern, it may be a long time coming.

Analysis of the Head and Shoulders Bottom should focus on correct identification of neckline resistance and volume patterns. These are two of the most important aspects to a successful read, and by extension a successful trade. The neckline resistance breakout combined with an increase in volume indicates an increase in demand at higher prices. Buyers are exerting greater force, and the price is being affected.

As seen from the examples, traders do not always have to chase a stock after the neckline breakout. Often, but certainly not always, the price will return to this new support level and offer a second chance to buy. Measuring the expected length of the advance after the breakout can be helpful, but don't count on it for your ultimate target. As the pattern unfolds over time, other aspects of the technical picture are likely to take precedent. Technical analysis is dynamic, and your analysis should incorporate aspects of the long-, medium- and short-term picture.

轉載時寒冰的文章，時兄寫的非常不錯

http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/93541238.html

精華摘錄

    美国商务部最近公布的数据显示，今年3月份，该国新屋销售中间价创下近40年来 最大跌幅，新房（独栋，相当于中国的别墅）销售中间价为每套22.76万美元，这种精装修的面积大都在200平方米以上的房屋，折合成人民币单价也不过每 平方米8000元左右。而2007年我国新住宅（相当于美国的公寓）销售的平均价格为3655元/平方米。如果考虑到我国的房价是毛胚房，质量和品质低于 美国，且不包含土地所有权（我们只有70年使用权），再考虑到美国人的人均收入是中国的30倍，热钱还会疯狂地涌入中国房地产市场吗？

    而当房屋作为投资品时，其价格是由房屋的租金所决定。通常用“租售比”（每平方米使用面积的月租金与每平方米建筑面积房价之间的比值）来衡量其价值，根据 国际惯例，如果租售比低于1：300，意味着房产投资价值小，房产泡沫已经显现；如果高于1：200，表明这一区域房产投资潜力相对较大，投资价值较大， 而在中国，深圳、广州等地的租售比，甚至达到1：1000。一些房屋等到报废时也收不回成本。有人计算过，买一套出租所得租金收入，还不如存到银行挣利息 划算——即使在负利率的情况下亦如此。这说明，房屋的投资价值已经丧失。

這個題目可能不小心的觸動了誰的神經，好。請對號入座，先說說中國人最喜歡的東西房子

在老一輩無產階級革命家的眼裡（父母）這個是一 個安身立命的物件。但是話說回來，租房子難道不能安身立命嗎。此怪力亂神的其一。其二我相信“為人不看美劇老友記 （Friends），自稱看過美劇也枉然 ”在Friends裡面很多二三十歲的年輕人一起合租房子，是司空平常的事情，要是到了中國，絕對會認為你這個人是沒有什麽本事的， 怎么還沒有房子，誰嫁 給你。FUCK。到底是嫁給人還是嫁給不動產。難道不知道money can't buy love 的道理嗎。哈~ 美國還是一個超前消費的國家，次級債問題。中國都沒有這些問題股市為什麽下跌的這么厲害，說越南爆發了經濟危機，大盤跌了50%為什麽中國的那些磚家在 中國股市暴跌以後還說是不是到了熊市，我這個天才菜鳥用腳思考都知道了“是熊市了”。一切不符合經濟學的事情到 了中國可以冠冕堂皇的加上“中國特色”這是 什麽思維。人民幣升值，物價在飛漲難道大家都是沒有發現，還在說我過的經濟在已兩位數的速度增長，做這些數據給誰看。2001年到2005年房價翻了一 倍，2005年到2007年房價又翻了一倍。房子哪有這樣漲的，突然在天涯上看到了一片文章很好。引用如下

　 　

        到休斯顿和洛杉矶出差10多天，参观了休斯顿一个同事和一个同学的房子。他们一再强调这在当地只是中等收入家庭的普通住宅情况。休斯顿是美国第四大城市， 但是房价在美国确实不算贵算是中等水平。
　 　参观的两套房子都是去年和前年买的新房，价格一套小点20万美金一套大点30万美金。美国住房基本都是木质结构带装修，面积计算时候不算车库和前后院的 面积。两套住房都在郊区的别墅区，在休斯顿其实大部分人都是住在别墅区，因为市区主要是写字楼，很少有人住在市区位数不多的公寓楼里。公寓楼主要是出租给 穷人，学生同时还可以做汽车旅馆。
　　第一套房子，3200平方英尺，20万美金，我同学一次性付清了。典型的中国人习惯，如果老美肯定只是付4 万首付。4间卧室，3间卫生间。1个书房1个游戏室1个媒体室（就是没有窗户，隔音效果好，可以里面尽情歌唱）楼下是主卧和两个卫生间。以及男女主人各一 个的衣帽间。当然还有一个大客厅一个大饭厅和厨房了。后院面积在80到90平方的样子，有草坪。
　　第二套房子。3500平方英尺，35万。结构差不多，楼下主卧，楼上多了一个卫生间和一个卧室而已。
　　就30w美金这个价格，不要说在上海就是在内地一些城市在所谓的郊区位置估计也买不到这样的别墅。
　 　而且要知道，我们买的只是70年房子的使用权，而国外买房都是带土地的。现在有人说上海房价一直会涨等等，中国土地资源有限等等。如果假设中国房价因为 种种原因确实会一直向上。这也是房市多方的基础。可是现在表面上的房价上涨真的是房子本身涨价吗？要知道普通的住宅是随着时间而逐步折价的，除非一些有着 艺术价值的房子。所以中国绝大多数房价的上涨都实际是土地价格上涨引起的。那么除非你是短期炒房，然后获利了解。在中国，长期来看你实际并没有真正拥有一 个不断升值的土地进而拥有一个房子不断的增值。那么，我们去追逐这不断上涨的房价有何意义？我们支付如此大的代价去支付一个最终并不属于我们的东西有何意 义？纵然中国资源缺乏，人口众多可能很难达到国外的住房条件。但是，我们难道就应该支付比国外更高的成本去购买一个价值更低的且最终不属于自己的物品？
　　有房产商曾经放言，房产商就是为富人服务的。如果富人有这个能力购买一个物品，也许他们也会权衡哪里的物品更有价值。君不见加拿大，澳大利亚，甚至台 湾日本都已经在上海兜售本地的房产项目。
　　当富人也有了更多选择的时候，当穷人已经绝望买不起的时候，当矛盾积累到疯狂的地步的时候，中国的房市还能稳如泰山？

前段時間還在網上看到一篇新聞說在廈門買一個100平方的房子在加拿大買一套別墅。天呀，我們的GDP才多少，美國多少。如果我要買房子除非我是瘋子。最好的方法是做投資。做你熟悉的投資，BTW：股票是最好的投資。

再說說油價。 油價完全是美國Bush那倆爺子整上去的。美國911確實值得同情，但是你不去打人家人家怎么來撞你呢。而且關伊拉克什麽事情嗎。大規模的殺傷性武器找到 沒有嗎，即使薩達姆是暴君，還是和美國沒有關係啊。還不是去搶石油。搶了石油了，石油多了，按照道理來說應該是油價下降。他不！一個勁的向上漲。美國從國 家開始就是這樣的超前消費，消費他的武器，掠奪他國的石油。這都是可以理解的把自己的壓力轉嫁與他國。不失為資本主義國家的劣根性。看看國內呢，原油一個 勁的上漲的同時，中國不開發油價，為什麽共產主義國家的東西比資本主義還要壟斷呢？為什麽中石油中石化這樣的公司還在叫虧損呢？難道是中國的油價過低。來看看6月份的數據，用事實說話。

在美國加油站油品6月份零售油價每加侖4.09美元，每加侖相當於3.785昇。換算後每昇1.08美元，6月份人 民幣兌換美元為1： 6.9，折合7.456元/每昇。
注意：7.456元/每昇裡，是完稅、完費的價格，包括了：聯邦稅$0.184元/加侖，州和地方稅$0.18元/加侖；消費稅佔銷售額的8.25%。
而我們目前的汽油價格已經高達6.3元-6.6元，發改委仍然說賠錢，煉油廠賠錢，百姓還需要單獨繳納：車船使用稅、養路費、高速公路費等等，也不滿意。 如此，官不滿意、商不滿意、民也不滿意，倒不如建議政府，將各種稅費合並到油價中，把我們的油價和紐約掛鉤！不要忘記了中國的GDP和美國的GDP是查30倍！！！（6月19日，發改委說油價每噸上調1000，我買的中石化要漲了，但是我還是要聲討他們。）

犧牲了全國人民的幸福度來滿足一些達官貴人的虛榮心，我可以接受。你可以一邊榨取著老百姓的錢一邊搞貪污，我可以接受。你可以在你的職 位上不作為，我可以接 受。你可以在給學生修的教室里不加上鋼筋，我可以接受。你可以阻止在失去獨生子女后抗議的父母，我可以接受。你可以在互聯網時代愚弄繼續人民，我為什麽要 接受。

我是反革命。毛澤東說“革命不是請客吃飯，不是做文章，不是繪畫繡花，不能那么的雅致，那樣從容不迫，文質彬彬， 那樣溫良恭儉讓。革命是暴動，是一個階級推翻一個階級的暴烈的行動。” 我是反對暴力的，所以我是反革命。

當 那些SB還在彈冠相慶人民幣對美元升值的時候，美國次級債的危機已經通過美元貶值，油價上漲這一系列的經濟手段消減了。那些遊資QFII進入中國的股市推 高出貨的時候，中國的大多數股民接手了。下跌了55%捲走了多少錢。政府的干預調控起到了什麽作用。“防止股市大起大落” 55%算不算。在數據上說我國在飛速的發展，為什麽老百姓都看不起病了。醫保在那裡。社保有什麽用，不看看豬肉漲了一倍，房子漲了一倍，食用油漲了一倍。 你的工資漲了幾倍？哈~誰來救你，靠政府嗎，危機的時候父母都考不住。蘇秦就是最好的榜樣。

我已經開始我的投資事業。股票趨勢操作，我不會相信那些SB磚家。政府的半夜政策，keep sharp 不斷的做趨勢操作。100%至200%的複利。十年以後你什麽都有了。

上集

 

 

下集

 

引用一個朋友的話：

 

1、相信最高优先级的事情永远是保住资本，这是他的投资决策的基石。
2、作为习惯一的结果，他是风险厌恶者。
3、他有他自己的投资哲学，这种哲学是他的个性、能力、知识、品位和目标的表达。因此，任何两个极为成功的投资者都不可能有一样的投资哲学。
4、已经开发并检验了他自己的个性化选择、购买、抛售投资系统。
5、认为分散化是荒唐可笑的。
6、憎恨交纳税款和其他交易成本，巧妙地安排他的行为以合法实现税额最小化。
7、只投资于他懂的领域。
8、从来不做不符合他的投资标准的投资。可以很轻松地对任何事情说：“不”。
9、不断寻找符合他的投资标准的新的投资机会，积极进行独立调查研究。只愿意听取那些他有充分的理由去尊重的投资者或者分析家的意见。
10、当他找不到符合他的投资标准的投资机会时，他会耐心等待，直到发现机会。
11、在做出决策后即刻行动。
12、持有赢钱的投资，直到事先确定的退出条件成立。
13、坚定地遵守他自己的系统（投资哲学）。
14、知道自己也会犯错。在发现错误的时候即刻纠正它们。因此很少遭受大损失。
15、 把错误看成学习的机会。
16、随着经验的积累，他的回报也越来越多……现在他似乎能用更少的时间赚更多的钱。因为他已经“交了学费”。
17、几乎从不对任何人说他在做些什么。对其他人如何评价他的投资决策没兴趣也不关心。
18、已经成功地将他的大多数任务委派给了其他人。
19、花的钱远少于他赚的钱。
20、工作是为了刺激和自我实现，不是为钱。
21、迷恋投资的过程（并从中得到满足）；可以轻松摆脱任何个别投资对象。
22、24小时不离投资。
23、把他的钱投到了他赖以谋生的地方。例如：沃伦.巴非特的净资产有99%是伯克夏-哈撒韦的股份，乔治.索罗斯也把他的大部分财产投入了量子基金。他们的个人利益与那些将钱托付给他们的人是完全一致的。